August 29 , 2006            
            
Boiling Baluchistan

It may be too premature and even too dramatic to talk about Baluchistan seceding from Pakistan but that eventuality would have crossed many minds in the aftermath of the killing of the influential local leader, Sardar Akbar Khan Bugti during a military operation.

India's surprising candor while expressing concern over the goings-on in Baluchistan much to Pakistan's annoyance is understandable considering the destabilizing potential of that region for the rest of the country. Baluchistan accounts for 43 per cent of Pakistan's territory as well a fifth of the country's nation's natural resources. The region also accounts for 36 percent of natural gas produced in Pakistan. On top of all these natural assets sits widespread discontent among the fiercely independent tribes which have no love lost for Pakistan. Together these attributes make for a highly combustible situation, one that is fraught with implications for Pakistan's future.

Strategically it makes sense for India to stay engaged with the Baluch problem because the sheer territory it affects could alter South Asia's geopolitics. What does not make sense though is a feeling of glee that New Delhi betrays while talking about it. It is not altogether inconceivable that there are certain hawks in the Indian establishment who would have no problem if Baluchistan becomes another Bangladesh. After all dismemberment of 43 percent of Pakistan's territory could alter South Asia forever and leave Pakistan stunningly truncated.

On balance the ferment in Baluchistan threatens to exact a far greater price on the Pakistani nation-state than the insurgency in Kashmir does on India. It will not be very surprising if some minds in New Delhi's foreign policy establishment consider the Baluch rebellion as a possible counter to Pakistan's dangerously meddlesome policy in Kashmir.

It appears that Washington, as preoccupied as it is in Iraq, Lebanon and Iran, may not even have noticed the Baluch challenge. At a time when its "closet ally" in the war on terror may be facing the single biggest threat to its authority, the U.S. would be well-advised to find some time for Baluchistan.



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